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Guiomar Calvo, Alicia Valero, and Antonio Valero (2017)

Assessing maximum production peak and resource availability of non-fuel mineral resources: Analyzing the influence of extractable global resources

Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 125:208-217.

Among the existing methodologies to assess future availability of mineral resources, the Hubbert peak model is a direct approach that can provide useful information about non-fuel mineral depletion using BAU production trends. Using lithium as a case study, the influence on the fluctuations on extractable resources has been analyzed. Accounting only for conventional lithium resources, the peak is only delayed less than two decades even if the most optimistic resources values are doubled. Additionally, using resources information obtained mainly from USGS data, the maximum production peak of 47 mineral commodities has been estimated. For two of them, the maximum theoretical production peak has already been reached, 12 could have theirs in the next 50 years and a total of 30 commodities could reach their maximum production peak in the next century. Many factors can influence these values, changes in future extraction trends, ore grade, exploration and new discoveries and more accurate data on resources. With this information the most crucial elements (i.e. those peaking soon) can be identified and be used to put more emphasis on policies regarding sustainable use of non-renewable commodities.

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Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad
Ulysea S.L. - Informática

The Material Limits of Energy Transition: Thanatia

Antonio Valero Capilla, Alicia Valero Delgado and Guiomar Calvo

This book provides a holistic view of raw mineral depletion in the context of renewable energy transistion.

The material limits Thanatia


Thanatia. Los límites minerales del planeta

mites minerales del planeta

 Antonio Valero Capilla and Alicia Valero Delgado interviewed by Adrián Almazán

We need a material transition, not only energetic, that restores nature and effectively reuses materials. Gaia must be cared for by extending life on Earth and slowing its degradation towards Thanatia.

Thanatia los limites


Thermodynamics for Sustainable Management of Natural Resources

Cover Thermodynamics

Wojciech Stanek (Editor)

This book examines ways of assessing the rational management of nonrenewable resources. Integrating numerous methods, it systematically exposes the strengths of exergy analysis in resources management.

Thanatia: The Destiny of the Earth's Mineral Resources

Cover Thanatia

A Thermodynamic Cradle-to-Cradle Assessment by (author): Antonio Valero Capilla and Alicia Valero Delgado

Is Gaia becoming Thanatia, a resource exhausted planet? For how long can our high-tech society be sustained in the light of declining mineral ore grades, heavy dependence on un-recycled critical metals and accelerated material dispersion? These are all root causes of future disruptions that need to be addressed today.